Showing posts with label David Jenyns. Show all posts
Showing posts with label David Jenyns. Show all posts

7/30/07

How To Win In Futures Trading With This Simple Tactic


Surprisingly, many profitable speculators have success rates between 30% and 50%. Futures traders are not successful because they predict prices well. They`re winning because their profitable trades far exceed their losses. The truth of the matter is all Futures systems win and lose.

Psychologically, this can make following a system difficult. Futures market professionals achieve success in this environment by controlling risk with money management rules. But, controlling risk goes against our natural tendencies. Most Futures traders don`t want to manage risk, they want to be right. Despite the proven fact that money management is so important, when Futures traders first come to me, many of my clients focus their time looking for the perfect entry. It`s their search for the Holy Grail. They want a perfect Futures indicator.

Not only is this Futures indicator going to get them in right at the bottom of the trend, but it`s also going to tell them at the exact point at the top of the trend when to get out. Here`s the best part and about this indicator: apparently, it can guarantee success and it`s never, ever wrong.

Unfortunately, though I don`t like to disappoint my clients, I need to let them know the hard truth. It does not matter whether you are trading in the Futures or any other market, the simple fact is this; there is no perfect indicator. Instead, there are carefully set money management rules that will place you in control. With this control, you`ll be able to follow the two cardinal rules in your Futures trading – you`ll be able to let your profits run and cut your losses short.

Once these money management rules are in place your system can be set on autopilot. You won`t need to worry…

"Should I be holding this stock?"

OR

"Shouldn`t I be holding that type of stock?"

This uncertainty is what people are confronted with when they don`t have their rules set for the Futures market. The end result is that small losses end up being big losses.

To make matters worse, a few of these big losses strung together can have a detrimental effect on your Futures trading capital. Unfortunately, it`s much more difficult to trade to gain back money you have lost then it is to trade with profits that you already have in hand. If things go to the absolute extreme, you run the risk of wiping out your entire Futures trading float, as many traders do when they first get started. But, with your money management rules in place, you can ride out the ups and downs of every Futures trading system and succeed where many fail.

7/20/07

A Critical Review of Metastock 8.0: Is Upgrading Worth the Money


If you are like many other traders, you have been eagerly waiting for the release of Metastock 8.0 for one reason, and one reason only, the reportedly redeveloped system tester. Metastock`s one major flaw has always been its lack of back testing capabilities, though previous versions of Metastock are head and shoulders above the competition on other fronts.

But whatever criteria you use to trade with, be it moving averages, candle sticks, fibonacci retracements, or any other trading system, you`re going to need to back test it. Everyone needs to thoroughly back test, or simulate, their trading system in ways that can match the conditions you will be trading in. It`s something all serious traders do.

Consequently, when Equis International (the makers of Metastock 8.0) announced "an all-new type of exploration that emulates running system tests over an entire database of securities", I could hardly wait to get the Metastock 8.0 release.

While waiting to receiving my copy of Metastock 8.0 I began building trading systems. By the time my copy of Metastock 8.0 finally arrived, I had around 20 systems ready for testing, and couldn`t wait to try them out.

However, when I loaded up the software, I was in for a surprise. It looked like nothing had changed. I thought maybe Equis International had kept the same interface and added in greater flexibility and some more features, but after searching in every nook and cranny, I found next to nothing that was new. It looked the same and, except for a couple of small changes, it was the same!

Then I came to the System tester - now called the "Enhanced System Tester". This was my major reason for upgrading from version 7.22. This is what appeared to be only real difference between Metastock 7.22 and Metastock 8.0.

After fiddling around with the Metastock 8.0 Enhanced System Tester for a few hours, and testing my 20 systems, I reached the verdict that I wasted my money on the new version of Metastock 8.0. Despite the supposed improvements to the Enhanced System Tester it, like it`s predecessor, left a lot to be desired.

Even though the Metastock 8.0 Enhanced System Tester tests multiple securities in one batch, it treats each security independently of the others. Therefore, when Metastock 8.0 tests the first security, it uses your predefined float and takes the trade over the test period selected. Once that is completed, it repeats the same process for the second security, using the same initial float, with no reference to the first security.

In the end, you receive the same result that you would have if you simply tested each security individually and added the results together. Not only is this process dreadfully slow, but the entire reason for testing your system is side-stepped. When your finished all the explorations, the performance of your trading system is still unknown!

The moral of the story is that if you already own Metastock 7, don`t worry about upgrading to Metastock 8.0. Simply stick with the version you have and keep your fingers crossed that Equis International gets it right for Metastock 9.0.